Imports Accelerate as the Trade Gap Narrows
China reported stronger-than-expected growth in both exports and imports in October, with the faster increase in imports sharply reducing its monthly trade surplus. Official figures released Tuesday showed goods exports rising 35.2% from a year earlier, ahead of the 33.5% increase forecast in a Reuters poll. Export growth nevertheless eased from September’s 36.3%.
Imports increased 41.6%, accelerating from 31% in September and substantially exceeding the poll’s 32% forecast. The monthly surplus fell to $105.3 billion, below expectations and its lowest level since April, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. Even with that decline, China’s cumulative surplus reached $1.04 trillion through October, compared with a record $1.2 trillion for all of 2025.
Technology and Energy Drive Overseas Purchases
Demand for technology-related products, critical minerals including copper, and energy supplies accounted for much of the import surge, Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC. CNBC’s calculations using official figures showed that the value of high-technology imports increased 72% from a year earlier in October.
Energy purchases also rose sharply in value: crude oil imports increased about 41%, liquefied natural gas about 50% and coal about 60%. These figures measure spending rather than physical volumes, so they do not by themselves establish how much additional material China bought. The composition of the increase points to strong demand in technology and resource-related categories, rather than demonstrating a broad recovery in household consumption.
Export Strength Contrasts With Weak Domestic Spending
The resilience of exports has enabled Chinese policymakers to rely on moderate support measures as they pursue an annual economic growth target of 4.5%–5%, CNBC reported. Household demand remains considerably weaker: retail sales increased just 1.1% in September. Trading partners have stepped up calls for Beijing to strengthen domestic demand and reduce the economy’s reliance on sales abroad.
Much of the export expansion reflects demand for chips and other hardware used in artificial intelligence. That creates exposure to any slowdown in the global AI infrastructure buildout, which could weaken shipment growth and put pressure on exporters’ margins. Other indicators already suggest softer momentum. China Beige Book’s separate survey found that new domestic and export orders for goods slowed in October relative to a year earlier. Official purchasing managers’ data also showed an unexpected contraction in factory activity as overseas orders cooled. In an October 30 note, China Beige Book described a weakening in what had been the economy’s stronger segment.
U.S. Trade Rebounds Ahead of Expected Leaders’ Meeting
The value of Chinese exports to the United States rose 32.9% from a year earlier in October, while imports from the U.S. increased nearly 35%. China recorded a $32.7 billion bilateral surplus for the month. Over the first ten months of the year, U.S.-bound shipments increased 12.1%, partly reflecting a low comparison base after exports to that market fell 20% last year amid steep tariff increases.
Washington and Beijing agreed in September to a two-month extension of their broader trade truce, carrying it into January, according to CNBC. The agreement also included measures involving export-control waivers for certain critical minerals and special port fees on each other’s vessels. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet next week at the APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen, China. It would be their third meeting this year, with the temporary trade arrangements still an important backdrop.
European Vehicle Limits Leave Broader Imbalance Unresolved
China’s October exports to the European Union increased 24.4%, while imports from the bloc fell more than 4%, widening China’s bilateral surplus to $33.4 billion. The EU reached an agreement with Beijing last month to limit imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles over the next few years as part of its effort to narrow the trade deficit. Those restrictions are scheduled to take effect on December 1.
Analysts cited by CNBC expect the vehicle limits to have little effect on China’s overall export expansion. The annual ceiling of 350,000 cars exceeds the 300,000 hybrids China exported to Europe last year, but is well below the annualized pace of 800,000 over the latest three months, according to Brad Setser, a Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow and former U.S. Treasury official. Setser argued that Europe still lacks a consistent approach to automotive trade and industrial policy, as well as a broader economic strategy toward China. The figures leave a central uncertainty: whether stronger imports will persist enough to narrow trade imbalances while export demand faces both policy constraints and signs of slowing orders.
Source: CNBC