A Strong Headline With Questions Beneath It
U.S. employers added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Friday, comfortably exceeding the 59,000 increase forecast by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. CNBC’s examination of the figures identified consulting and temporary staffing as important contributors, alongside a possible boost from political campaign activity.
Those sources of hiring carry different implications for the economy. Consulting employment may reflect businesses seeking help with artificial intelligence adoption, while temporary staffing can precede more lasting recruitment. But earlier holiday hiring and work tied to the election could also have lifted October’s total without establishing a durable acceleration in labor demand.
Consulting Employment Reaches a Record
Employment in management, scientific and technical consulting increased by 17,300 between September and October, its biggest monthly gain in nearly two years. The category supplied 25% of October’s job growth in the broader professional and business services sector. Over the past year, consulting payrolls expanded by more than 45,000, taking total employment above 1.9 million for the first time in BLS records.
The increase follows a period in which hiring had largely stagnated since 2023, after rapid expansion during the pandemic. Some economists believe companies’ efforts to deploy AI could explain the renewed demand for advisers, though the payroll figures do not establish that connection. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said AI infrastructure development and corporate adoption should support technical consulting work. He compared the opportunity with the late 1990s, when consulting jobs recorded double-digit growth as businesses implemented internet technology.
That interpretation contrasts with investors’ concerns that AI could reduce demand for consulting services. CNBC reported that Gartner shares had lost more than half their value over three years, while Accenture and FTI Consulting had fallen about 18% and 9%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained roughly 74% over the same period. Gartner forecast in September that worldwide AI spending would reach $2.7 trillion in 2026, almost 50% above the previous year.
AI’s Employment Impact Remains Contested
The consulting figures fit a broader argument that AI-related investment is currently generating employment even as automation threatens some roles. An assessment by Moody’s Analytics estimated that AI had produced a net gain of 786,000 jobs since ChatGPT’s launch in November 2022, with data center construction contributing to that growth.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said in a Monday social media post that AI was, for now, supporting job creation rather than reducing it. He nevertheless cautioned that the risk of displacement remained and that AI-driven productivity gains could accelerate. The Moody’s estimate and economists’ explanations offer a counterpoint to job-loss concerns, not proof that AI will continue to deliver a positive employment balance.
Temporary Staffing Offers an Ambiguous Signal
Temporary-help payrolls rose by 18,600 in October, one of their largest monthly increases since 2022 and equivalent to 27% of the professional and business services sector’s gains. Although employment remained well below its 2022 peak, it had increased roughly 3% since December. Staffing levels were back to those last seen in April 2025, when President Donald Trump’s announcement of steep tariff plans heightened corporate uncertainty.
Economists often regard temporary hiring as an early indicator of labor-market direction because businesses may subsequently convert short-term positions into permanent roles. In this case, approaching holiday demand complicates that reading. Employers could be recruiting seasonal workers earlier than usual, with less reason to retain them in January. BLS seasonal adjustments account for established patterns but may not immediately capture changes in their timing.
Courier and messenger employment provides another reason for caution: that category accounted for slightly more than one in every 10 jobs added in October. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said the category should be monitored for a reversal over the coming months.
Campaign Hiring May Prove Short-Lived
Political spending offers another possible explanation for October’s strength. A BLS analysis shows that employment in political organizations has historically risen before presidential and midterm elections, typically peaking in October. Overall nonfarm payrolls also increased in the months preceding the 2018 and 2022 midterms.
OpenSecrets projected that the 2026 congressional elections would be the most expensive midterms on record. Billions of dollars in campaign spending may have supported paid canvassing, phone banking and other election work, potentially providing a larger hiring boost than in previous cycles. However, the supplied report does not quantify that contribution. Subsequent payroll figures will help distinguish sustained demand from holiday and election-related employment that may unwind.
Source: CNBC